BT’s “6 Pack-of-Picks” Week 4

Your picks, are served!

Week 1: 4-2 ATS

Week 2: 4-1-1 ATS

Week 3: 3-3 ATS

Season to date: 11-6-1 ATS

Week 4: (home team in CAPS)

CLEVELAND BROWNS (PK) OVER Tennessee Titans: Perhaps Vegas knows something we don’t (entirely plausible), but this line jumped out immediately to me. Not only did I peg the Browns as a sleeper in the AFC over the summer, but so much of Tennessee’s early season success is a result of Kenny Britt’s explosion at wideout. With Britt lost for the season (torn ACL, MCL), Matt Hasselbeck becomes ordinary, which allows Cleveland to focus solely on Chris Johnson. Look for an emotional boost in the stands with the return of crowd favorite Peyton Hillis, and watch the Browns roll to their first 3-1 start in nearly a decade. Don’t expect a lot of points, but expect exactly what you should play: another win for the Dawg Pound.

He's back. Ride the "Rhino"

Buffalo Bills (-3) OVER CINCINNATI BENGALS: There’s no question the Bills have talent, we’re way past that. The next step, especially for a franchise with no recent winning pedigree, is to avoid reading the press clippings, stay the course and remain hungry. Following an emotional, inspiring win over the Pats, that’s not as easy as it seems. Still, given the apathy that’s already settled into the ‘Nati fan base (only 43,000 people showed up for their home opener vs. the Niners), the Bills have one advantage in that a road game takes on more of a neutral feel. Look for the Bills to pounce early lead, and settle into cruise mode somewhere near the middle of the 3rd quarter. The Bills 4-0? Absolutely.

Atlanta Falcons (-4) OVER SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: On the surface, it’s difficult  to pinpoint Atlanta’s early-season inconsistencies and erratic play given their overall talent base. However, upon deeper review, the offensive line jumps out as the main culprit. Matty “Ice” is melting under an avalanche of pressure up front, and it’s impacting the bottom line. “We are very disappointed with the way we have protected our quarterback in the first three ballgames,” Head Coach Mike Smith said. “We’ll have to look at what’s going wrong schematically as well as evaluate our personnel.” Translation: They better, otherwise the franchise QB will wind up on IR. Already sacked 13 times, Ryan has swallowed turf at least four times in each of the first three games. Not good for a team expected by many, to be playing into January. Seattle’s the perfect remedy, despite winning last week. They are still garbage. Treat them like such. Falcons roll.

Detroit Lions/DALLAS COWBOYS OVER 46: I like Tony Romo, always have. I also lived and worked in Detroit early in my career, so their revival takes on greater meaning for me knowing just how passionate and hungry their loyal fans are for a winner. Truth be told, I believe that both of these teams will make the playoffs, but there are a few variables that make this one tough to call: can Dallas snap the ball straight? Will Detroit handle prosperity well? Personally, I have no idea, however, with Stafford, Best, Johnson, Romo, Jones, Bryant and Witten on the field, points should come early and often. Roll with the over.

Still not a fan of Romo? Fine. But give the man credit: he always gets up.

New York Giants (-1) OVER ARIZONA CARDINALS: Cards receive a boost in the backfield with the return of Beanie Wells, but I’m not sure it’s enough to slow down Big Blue in the desert. Eli Manning is playing well, and brings his 104.3 QB rating back into the stadium of his greatest professional triumph: Super Bowl XLII. Doubt Victor Cruz ever duplicates what he did last week versus Philly, but with the return of Mario Manningham, he won’t have to. This is a matchup of NFC East (arguably, the best in football) vs. NFC West (undeniably, the worst in football) Don’t over-think this one. By installing the visiting G Men as favorites, it’s obvious Vegas didn’t. Generally, home field advantage is worth 3 points, yet the Giants are laying a point. They are flat-out telling you the Giants are better. They are. Side with Coughlin’s crew.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3) OVER New York Jets: Remove Rex Ryan and his booming voice from the equation for a moment, and what are you left with when evaluating the Jets?  A porous offensive line, a spotty run game, zero natural pass rush and really, at the end of the day, just one elite defender in Darrelle Revis. The Jets receive a lot of national run, and they deserve it with back-to-back AFC Title games on their resume. However, their LB’ers are slooooow, something Ray Rice, like McFadden, will expose this week. For the first time in years, I actually believe the Jets are regressing. I watched the film on the Raiders game from last Sunday, and quite frankly, it’s worse than I originally thought. Mix in some bad karma with Joe Willie and Rex exchanging barbs, and it just feels like the Jets are about to enter a bit of a chaotic phase.

The arrow appears to be pointing in the wrong direction for Gang Green.

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