BT’s “6 Pack of Picks” Version 5.0

Tread lightly, it's been a crazy few weeks.

Ride the peaks aggressively, and proceed with caution during the valleys. It’s a mantra handed down for generations, from the street corners, to the bright lights of Vegas, to the pearly-white shores of the on-line world. That never changes. Don’t chase on Sunday night, and most certainly know when to walk away. Basic staples most adhere to.

Something else you should add to the list, at least for the first quarter of the NFL season: no one knows what the heck is next. Blame it on the lockout, but let’s face it, that excuse is drying up quickly. Embrace the fact that trends mean very little thus far, and expect the road to remain bumpy.

It’s going to be that type of year. Understand that going in.

If not, check into a clinic, because you clearly have issues.

Were the Bills really outscored 20-3 in the 2nd half in Cincinnati,  and despite leading 17-3 at the half, lose the Bengals? Yup. Did Shurmur really let Colt McCoy attempt 61 passes versus the Titans? Yup. Did the Niners really beat the Eagles? In Philly? Yup and yup. Were the Jets absolutely waxed on national TV by the Ravens? You bet. Are the Falcons driving people nuts in every crevice of the world? Yup. Really? You couldn’t handle a manageable number in Seattle? Nope.

Look at this way: if you’ve broken even the past two weeks, consider yourself actually ahead.

Strap in, time for another stab at greatness.

Week 1: 4-2 ATS

Week 2: 4-1-1 ATS

Week 3: 3-3 ATS

Week 4: 3-3 ATS

Season to date: 14-9-1

Week 5: (home team in CAPS)

NEW YORK GIANTS (-9.5) over Seattle Seahawks: I’ve basically compared Pete “The Cheat’s” team to an average MAC team the past few weeks, and while they’ve silenced me at home, the road in the NFL is generally pretty unforgiving. Especially when traveling nearly 3000 miles to face a better-than-expected Giants club. Big Blue rolls at home, and this time, I’m positive. I think.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3) over Tennessee Titans: Personally, like the Jets, I believe the Steelers are among the perceived “elite” teams slowly falling back down to earth. Sure, I’ve had a so-so read on the Titans thus far, but this is a gut play here. The Steelers still have plenty of pride, and a pretty good coach. Mix in the Terrible Towels, and I love Pittsburgh here.

Philadelphia Eagles/BUFFALO BILLS OVER 49.5: You know things are whacky when A) the Bills are 3-1 and B) the temperature reaches the mid-70’s at Ralph Wilson Stadium in early October. With rain/sleet a non-factor, the track remains quick, quick enough for all of the athletes on both sides to find the end zone early–and often. Roll with the over.

SAN FRANCISCO 49’ERS (-3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I like the Bucs, and I love Josh Freeman, and while they can certainly match San Fran’s toughness, Jim Harbaugh has me convinced, at least for this week. A short work week and a cross-country trip factor in as well, as does last season’s 21-0 beat down Tampa laid on the Niners. Mentally, they’ll be ready. Close call, which means buying 1/2 point and keeping it inside of a FG seems like a smart play.

San Diego Chargers (-3.5) over DENVER BRONCOS: Did you see the highlights from last week’s Denver game? Chargers pull away, big.

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS: Cam Newton has revitalized Carolina, and while the Panthers have shown they can score, one of the true Jedi’s of the NFL, Drew Brees, exposes a team not-yet-ready-for-prime-time. Lay the wood, trust the Boys from the Bayou.

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1 Comment

  1. We miss you, BT. Eagles/Bills should be a good one. Nnamdi vs Johnson, perhaps?

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