BT’s “6 Pack of Picks” Version 6.0

Stop the madness!


Week 1: 4-2 ATS

Week 2: 4-1-1 ATS

Week 3: 3-3 ATS

Week 4: 3-3 ATS

Week 5: 4-2 ATS

Season to date: 18-11-1 ATS

Week 6: (home team in CAPS)

Expect a magical day at the Coliseum.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (-7) over Cleveland Browns: While the porous Raiders run defense should, in theory, prove the perfect tonic for Peyton Hillis’ early season struggles, this one’s all about Al. After an emotional last-second win last week in Houston, the Silver and Black return home for what could become, possibly, the most memorable Raiders game of all-time. Al Davis’ shadow looms that large in the Bay Area, and should fuel the home team early. If the emotions work in reverse, eventually, talent will take over, and from top to bottom, the Raiders are simply more talented. The key is to keep Josh Cribbs out of the end zone on special teams. If they do, the Raiders cruise by double figures, with McFadden making a run at two bills on the ground. Rest in peace, Al.

NEW YORK JETS (-7) over Miami Dolphins (Monday Night): The Jets have some potentially crippling deficiencies, including, for the first time during the Rex Ryan Era, a fractured locker room.

The wheels are loose, but they're not off yet.

Chemistry aside, their defense is quickly eroding and their offense has become very predictable. Still, after a three game roadie thru Oakland, Baltimore and New England, the Jets catch one of the worst teams at the perfect time. With Matt Moore subbing for the injured Chad Henne, expect Ryan to dial up blitzes and hand Mark Sanchez a short field all night. With the Bills showing no signs of slowing down, and the Pats still the Pats, the Jets are hardly a lock for the playoffs. Still, simply put, they are supposed to bludgeon Miami. And they will. Jets, BIG.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS/Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 40: The Steelers average 20.4 ppg, 23rd in football, while the Jags average an anemic 12 ppg, 31st in football. Based on the stats and the math, the play here is the under. However, the Steelers mind-boggling performance in Week 1 (35-7 loss to the Ravens) weighs down their point-per-game average significantly. Instead, they should come close to duplicating last week’s drubbing of the Titans, when they sniffed 40 points. Basically, you’re hoping for 10-13 points from the Jags, and expecting Pittsburgh to do the rest of the heavy lifting. Remember, it’s not that I love the Steelers this season. I don’t. Personally, I think they, like the Jets, are slipping from the “elite” radar. But I love them here. Make sense? Roll with over.

New Orleans Saints (-4.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Considering that the Saints lone loss came to the Packers, and they ARE 4-1, something still seems as if it’s missing. When you dig deeper into some of their games, they simply haven’t been overly impressive. Before pulling away from the Jags in Week 4, they were locked in a 14-10 death match in the 3 rd quarter, and followed that up with a narrow 3 point win last week versus Carolina. The Bucs, meanwhile, are still licking their wounds after being pummeled 48-3 in San Francisco last Sunday. File that in the “aberration” file. Still, this is a gut play, and my gut says the Saints are due for a double-figure win. It”s been a while. Lay the points.

St. Louis Rams @ GREEN BAY PACKERS OVER 48: Last season, one NFL team averaged 30 points per game, the Pats. So far in 2011, six teams are hanging the same amount on opponents, and no team is more prolific than the Packers. Basically, GB has turned the NFL into the SEC, averaging 35 points per game and doing so seemingly, without even breaking a sweat. Sure, the defense has a little work to do (allowed 23 points to Carolina and Denver), but with the Rams down to their FOURTH and FIFTH CB on the depth chart, this one gets ugly fast, as Aaron Rodgers threatens 500 yards in the air. Take the over.

Dallas Cowboys (+7) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: I know, I know, the Pats are simply too good, right? I’m not so sure about that. They have weaknesses, they just do a great job of masking them, and with the exception of the Bills, have yet to face a team capable of exploiting those deficiencies. Enter, Dallas. Coming off a well-timed bye, Tony Romo is expected to have his receiving corp in tact for the first time since Week 1. Mix in three new starters on the New England’s offensive line, and DeMarcus Ware and Co. should punish Brady, who was sacked a season-high 4 times last week versus the Jets. I expect Dallas to hang, and quite honestly, wouldn’t be surprised if they flat-out win. Buckle in, this is the game of the week, not Niners-Lions. ‘Boys reward your faith, and cover the number.

4-2 last week? Yup, you guessed it: pimpin' once more.


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2 Comments

  1. noD_Antoni

     /  10/14/2011

    Keep up the great work BT…we miss you out here in NY

  2. H_Reyes_27

     /  10/14/2011

    That’s what we miss about you: someone who does not take the easy way out. Tough games to pick. Let’s hope that Dallas gets the good Tony Romo. As for my Jets, if the lose, might as well pack it in. Sanchez just has to play a complete game.

    BT-have you been to Sausalito yet? Great little city on the water with fantastic restaurants. You and the Mrs would enjoy!

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