Version 1.0

1

(home team in CAPS)

A word to the wise: work up a decent lather before bursting into an all out assault on Vegas. The sharps are formidable, particularly with several months to prep for Week 1. No need to slide down the mountain before mid-September. Tread lightly, grab momentum!

Atlanta Falcons and NEW ORLEANS SAINTS OVER 54: Handicapping, 101. Two elite QB’s with plenty of weapons on a fast surface with a comfy, controlled dome climate generally equates to a ton of scores. Brees and Ryan reward this play with 35 + points in the 1st half alone, making the final 30 minutes “Coast City.” Enjoy an early gift.

Elite vs elite.

Elite vs elite.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: The equivalent of a tap-in putt for Andy Reid as the removal of the stench suffocating KC gets off to a quick start with a road win and cover. Beware, however, as Alex Smith is more dink and dunk than downfield, so a blowout seems unlikely. Still, the Jags are road kill once more in the AFC while the Chiefs should be in the mix for a WC. Better talent, better coaching. KC handles Blaine Gabbert and the Jags.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-9.5) OVER Oakland Raiders: I’m not sold on Indy making a return trip to the playoffs, but I am very aware of the frightening dearth of talent Dennis Allen has to “work” with. It’s not his fault his GM has failed to stock the cupboards with a viable NFL roster. This game opened at 7 and has ballooned nearly three full points for a reason. Act fast, because the number ain’t going south. Indy exploits the Silver and Black’s deplorable offensive line and hangs a demoralizing loss on the worst team in the NFL. They’re baaaaaad. Biggest play of the day. By the way, anyone else think Reggie McKenzie resembles a “chubby” Blake Griffin?

Cincinnati Bengals and CHICAGO BEARS OVER 41.5: With back-to-back playoff appearances on their resume for the first time since the 80’s, the Bengals bring a wealth of explosive and hungry talent to the Windy City for a marquee matchup with the Bears. Injuries to Jay Cutler the past two seasons have derailed positive starts, but with QB-friendly Marc Trestman now calling the shots, look for Cutler to have his best season to date. Not sure this one climbs into the 30’s, but with a relatively low total of 41, lucky for you, it won’t have to. Roll with the over.

The next generation is here. #beast

The next generation is here. #beast

Arizona Cardinals and ST. LOUIS RAMS OVER 41.5: Bruce Arians looks to shore things up offensively with a vertical style that will match Carson Palmer’s skill set nicely. Both teams are trending in the right direction, particularly Jeff Fisher’s squad. In the bloodbath knows as the NFC West, the Rams, not the Niners or Seahawks, owed the best divisional record in ’12. (4-1-1) It’s officially time for Mr Bradford to step up. While this game lacks national sizzle, it has under-the-radar intrigue. Welcome back, Larry Fitzgerald. Over.

NEW YORK JETS (+3.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: While the Jets have very publicly staged yet another QB circus, they have enough elements to hang at home against a team with QB and injury issues of their own. Darrelle Revis hasn’t played a meaningful snap in a year and will undoubtedly be very rusty. The Jets offensive line and defense is stout enough to keep things interesting before they become unraveled in Week 2 vs the Pats. If you’re patient, you might gain 1/2 point Sunday morning with some late action on the Bucs. Capitalize as Gang Green registers a surprise and possibly rare cover.

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BT’s “6 pack of picks” Version 8.0

Maintaining Jedi-like focus during World Series nuttiness has proven difficult for many mere mortals in the Bay. Lucky for you, my middle name is Obi, nickname Wan.

Let’s blast Week 8, Solo-style, shall we?

Season to date: 23-18-1 ATS

Last week: 5-1 ATS

Week 8 picks: (home team in CAPS)

New Orleans Saints (+6) over DENVER BRONCOS: Work this sizable line to your favor and bank on a solid effort from a decaying but still proud team getting nearly a full TD. Strap in for a shootout in Mile High, and while there’s a pretty good chance the home team emerges with the “W,” Brees and the Saints keep it tight and secure a cover.

NEW YORK JETS (-2.5) over Miami Dolphins: Plenty of smack hitting the walls leading up to this one, which suits Rex Ryan’s squad just fine. New York rewarded me two weeks ago by blasting the Colts and also handled their business against the Pats, easily covering a double digit number. I like Ryan Tannehill, and Miami is improving, but the Jets get this one at the gun, and cover the number yet again.

ST. LOUIS RAMS (+7) over New England Patriots: I’m banking on the Giselle’s stumbling into some late-night, off-the-radar drug-feuled orgy bash in London tonight, which should lead to a tired and uncharacteristically sloppy Tommy B on Sunday. It’s the only way I’m able to rationalize this pick, quite frankly. Just a gut play, nothing more. Move along.

Carolina Panthers and CHICAGO BEARS UNDER 43.5: The Bears are very good, the Carolina Panthers are not. Even worse, their freakishly gifted QB has some serious body language and leadership issues. Not good. Bears put the squeeze down on D, keeping this one under en route to the win.

Just because.

DALLAS COWBOYS and New York Giants over 47.5: These games in Big D are always fun and usually involve plenty of  4th quarter fireworks. Unfortunately for Dallas, Eli is almost always the one holding the match and the fuse. This game has 50+ points written all over it. Roll with the over kids.

TENNESSEE TITANS (-3.5) over Indianapolis Colts: Soft Colts run defense + rejuvenated Chris Johnson = tough day for Indy on the road.

BT’s “6 pack of picks” Version 3.0

Pass the match.

I recommend you either A) completely ignore these picks or B) pick the exact opposite.

Last week: 2-3-1

Season to date: 4-7-1

Week 3: (home team in CAPS)

New York Jets (-2.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS: Two words: Revis Island. Rex Ryan will confuse the talented but very inexperienced Ryan Tannehill from the opening series. Something tells me Brian Hartline will revert back to being Brian Hartline. This isn’t the Raiders secondary, it’s the Jets. For additional fodder, Tim Tebow punches in his first TD of the season for Gang Green.

Kansas City Chiefs (+9) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: In attempting to correct a tactical mistake on my end two weeks in, rather than sweating out big point spreads without much reward, I’m taking two scores worth for the ‘dogs and hoping for the best. I know KC is better than they’ve shown thus far, but quite frankly, I’m not so sure about New Orleans. Eventually, it’s going to click for the Chiefs…I think.

No one said it was easy.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) over OAKLAND RAIDERS: Thus far, the Raiders are absolutely the worst team in football. Penalties, coupled with an inability to transition to a new blocking scheme makes this an easy call. Mix in a band-aid secondary and this should be a very strong play. While a cross country jaunt is always a factor, it’s early enough in the season where Pittsburgh is fresh, and should pounce early. Optimism is fading fast in the East Bay, and suddenly, you sense this has the potential to bottom out for the Silver and Black. Get that draft board ready, Reggie!

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3) over New England Patriots: Strange happenings up in Foxboro, as Wes Welker is slowly phased out of the offense. There are probably more appealing games to reach for since it’s always dicey betting against Brady. However, the Ravens are the class of the AFC, and will be highly motivated after last week’s loss in Philly. No need to over think this one. I’m rolling with the better team, and that’s Baltimore.

St. Louis Rams (+7.5) over CHICAGO BEARS: The Rams are quickly taking on Jeff Fisher’s feisty personality, just ask RG III. I still think Chicago is pretty decent, despite Cutler’s antics on Monday night against the Packers. They may rally the troops, or they could be staring at a divided locker room. I’ll split the difference and take the home team, in a close one, as the points work in your favor.

Cincinnati Bengals and WASHINGTON REDSKINS over 49: Not sure if you noticed, but the Browns exploited Cincy’s D last week. Yup, the Browns. That, coupled with some devastating news on the injury front to Washington’s defense, and the score board should get worked over early and often.

 

 

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